Uncategorized

Betting Selection, What Events?

The discussion today is about race or game selection.

The press and specifically all sports journalists have the unenviable problem that they have to supply a selection for each race of the day or for every game of football at the weekend. Even with the best will in the world it’s highly unlikely that any of them will do particularly well with this scattergun approach. How can you get everything right? If they could then I’m sure they’d be living it up in the sun somewhere after their first accumulator.

The truth is that we have an advantage over the Racing Post and the Racing and Football Outlook et al, we can choose to pick a winner in as many or as few events as we choose. Of course, then comes the question, “How do we find the best events to choose”?

Well after extensive research I can confirm one standard golden rule that many may suspect but I can happily confirm as accurate – The Cream rises to the top.

When gambling, we use “form” to decipher what the result of an event is and as you go up the football leagues or to the higher echelons of racing then you find the form is a more reliable indicator of the final event. It stands to reason that Premiership footballers will act in a more consistent manner than Sunday League football. Of course, the important point is that form becomes more stable but by no means guaranteed.

So how does this affect Football betting, well there’s two sides to it. Firstly, unless you have a very good reason to think otherwise, back only Premiership and Championship teams. Even with that selection I would highly favour the premier league teams. Unless you have a good reason to suspect otherwise then avoid Cup games also, the form can really swap around during these. In fact, a lot of people suspect there’s an advantage backing Minnows against Premier League teams as the premier teams often field weakened teams against lower opponents who are generally “up for it”. Of course, don’t forget the Draw either when betting in Premier League games, it’s generally then highest available odds….

For Horse Racing then the selection criteria is slightly different but it resolves around four things, the type of race, the number of runners, the distance and the class of the race.

If we look at today’s races from Goodwood and Redcar:

14:00 Electrolux Professional E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 12 runners)

14:35 R H Hall E.b.f. Maiden Stakes (2yo, Class 4, 1m 1f, 11 runners)

15:10 3663 First For Food Service Handicap (3yo+, Class 4, 6f, 11 runners)

15:45 Mouton Cadet Classic Foundation Stakes (listed) (3yo+, 1m 1f 192y, 5 runners)

16:20 Piper Champagne Handicap (3yo, Class 4, 1m 3f, 8 runners)

16:55 Discovery Foods Handicap (3yo+, Class 3, 1m 4f, 10 runners)

17:30 Merbury 20th Anniversary Apprentice Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 5f, 12 runners)

14:15 European Breeders’ Fund Maiden Stakes (2yo, Class 5, 7f, 17 runners)

14:50 Hold Your Christmas Party Here Nursery (str) (div 1) (2yo, Class 6, 1m, 15 runners)

15:25 Subscribe To Racing Uk Handicap (3yo+, Class 6, 6f, 18 runners)

16:00 Follow Redcar Racing On Facebook Claiming Stakes (str) (3yo+, Class 4, 1m, 13 runners)

16:35 Win A Vip Day Out At Redcarracing.co.uk Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 1m 2f, 9 runners)

17:10 Wedding Receptions At Redcar Racecourse Selling Stakes (3-5yo, Class 6, 1m 2f, 12 runners)

17:40 Buy Your Tickets Online At Redcarracing.co.uk Handicap (3yo+, Class 5, 5f, 11 runners)

18:10 Hold Your Christmas Party Here Nursery (str) (div 2) (2yo, Class 6, 1m, 15 runners)

The first thing I look at is the sensible (and quite obvious option) of removing and Nursery or Maiden races from the cards. The Nurseries are for 2 year old and Form is not guaranteed in anyway and Maidens are just loads of horses that have never won put together. How can you bet on a horse that hasn’t shown the drive to get its nose in front at some point in the past? This leaves us with the following list:

15:10 3663 First For Food Service Handicap (3 year+, Class 4, 6f, 11 runners)

15:45 Mouton Cadet Classic Foundation Stakes (listed) (3 year+, 1m 1f 192y, 5 runners)

16:20 Piper Champagne Handicap (3 year, Class 4, 1m 3f, 8 runners)

16:55 Discovery Foods Handicap (3 year+, Class 3, 1m 4f, 10 runners)

17:30 Merbury 20th Anniversary Apprentice Handicap (3 year+, Class 5, 5f, 12 runners)

15:25 Subscribe To Racing Uk Handicap (3 year+, Class 6, 6f, 18 runners) 먹튀검증

16:00 Follow Redcar Racing On Facebook Claiming Stakes (str) (3 year+, Class 4, 1m, 13 runners)

16:35 Win A Vip Day Out At Redcarracing.co.uk Handicap (3 year, Class 5, 1m 2f, 9 runners)

17:10 Wedding Receptions At Redcar Racecourse Selling Stakes (3-5yo, Class 6, 1m 2f, 12 runners)

17:40 Buy Your Tickets Online At Redcarracing.co.uk Handicap (3 year, Class 5, 5f, 11 runners)

From this I look to remove races where there are too many runners, it’s fairly obvious to assume that you have better odds if there are 5 horses in the race rather than 25. In our races listed here I would advise excluding the 18 horse 15.25 race. We then need to put the races in order of their class (remember the cream rises to the top). You are obviously not going to bet on every race so I would suggest just picking the top four or five to work through, in this case:

15:45 Mouton Cadet Classic Foundation Stakes (listed) (3 year, 1m 1f 192y, 5 runners)

16:55 Discovery Foods Handicap (3 year, Class 3, 1m 4f, 10 runners)

16:20 Piper Champagne Handicap (3 year, Class 4, 1m 3f, 8 runners)

16:00 Follow Redcar Racing On Facebook Claiming Stakes (str) (3 year, Class 4, 1m, 13 runners)

15:10 3663 First For Food Service Handicap (3 year, Class 4, 6f, 11 runners)

I would instinctually remove the final race on this list as I feel it’s over too short a distance. The longer a race runs for the longer the time the classiest horses have to show their ability. This leads us to our final selection of 4 races with which we should have the greatest chance of success. In our next article we’ll work through the racecards of these four races and make our selections.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *